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What are the odds of a Democrat win ?

Last post 11-09-2006, 10:33 AM by badgerrr. 3 replies.
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  •  11-02-2006, 12:24 AM 1025433

    What are the odds of a Democrat win ?

    In his first midterm election, George W. Bush picked up six House seats and two Senate seats -- making him, according to The New York Times, "the first Republican president to gain House seats in an off-year election" and only the third president of either party to pick up House seats in a midterm election since the Civil War.

    This means that for Democrats simply to match the historical average gain for the party out of the White House during the first and second midterm, they would have to pick up 67 seats in the House and 11 seats in the Senate. They're about 30 Mark Foleys short of having that happen.

    It at least seems clear that Democrat gains this year are going to fall far short of the historical average. No poll has the Democrats winning even half of their rightful midterm gains.

    Despite the precedent of big wins in midterm elections for the party out of power -- especially in a sixth-year midterm election -- something is depressing the Democrats' popularity with Americans this year. I suspect it's the perception that many of them are Democrats.

    But instead of recognizing that the Democratic Party is a dying party, falling far short of its due historical gains, any gain by the Democrats will be hailed as a crowning mandate for the party that wants to lose the Iraq war, shut down Guantanamo and stop spying on Islamic terrorists on U.S. soil.

    Even a dying party has death throes. If Democrats win a slight majority in the House or Senate, Americans will get shrill, insane leadership of the nation in time of war.

    Democrats can't not be crazy. They will instantly set to work enacting a national gay marriage law, impeachment hearings, slavery reparations and a series of new federal felonies for abortion clinic protesters. The only way to get Democrats to focus on terrorists would be to convince them that the terrorists are interfering with a woman's right to choose or that commercial jetliners exploding in midair are a threat to America's wetlands.

    The probable new House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is in a catfight with Rep. Jane Harman for not being insane enough. Pelosi has indicated she will deny Harman the chairmanship of the Intelligence Committee, instead giving it to Rep. Alcee Hastings, whom Pelosi voted to impeach from his federal judgeship in 1988 for conspiring to extract a $150,000 bribe from convicted criminals in return for lowering their sentences.

    An O.J. jury had acquitted Hastings on the bribery charge in a criminal proceeding, though his alleged co-conspirator, attorney William Borders, was convicted.

    But the evidence of Hastings' bribery plot was so overwhelming that a Democratic House voted to impeach Hastings 413-3 on 17 separate counts -- including falsifying evidence to win his acquittal in the criminal case, and a majority Democratic Senate voted to convict Hastings on the very first count by 69-26, enough to remove him from office.

    Rep. John Conyers Jr. -- another finalist for the coveted "craziest Democrat in congress" title -- led the charge for Hastings' impeachment, saying the judge had "betrayed his office."

    In addition to having a history of soliciting bribes from criminals before his court, Hastings wants to shut down Guantanamo, and he adamantly opposes the U.S. government listening to phone calls from al-Qaida phones to anyone in America (especially federal judges negotiating bribery deals by telephone).

    As millions of lunatic Muslims plot to murder Americans, some Americans -- we call them "Soccer Moms" -- will cast a vote to save Michael J. Fox this year. In the process, they will put all Americans at risk by voting for a frivolous, dying party.
  •  11-02-2006, 12:53 PM 1026969 in reply to 1025433

    Re: What are the odds of a Democrat win ?

    I think we can safely say that counting on the Republican Party to take steps on moral issues is pointless. With all the talk about gay marriage and abortion, Republicans don't really do much about these issues. Republicans have been in power for 6 years now, and abortion is still legal, with no real political battles that have been fought over it (dissappointed), and President Bush has decided not to push for a marriage amendment (on this, I am actually glad).

    I was a Republican since I first registered at 18, but have found myself repeatedly dissappointed by that party on issue after issue.

    As I have grown older and have realized that the world isn't as simple as I once thought, my issues of import have changed a great deal.

    I care about a living minimum wage. Republicans like to keep business expenses low, so they have no interest in that. They also know that when wages go overseas, they get lower and the stock market gets stronger. Trickle down economics don't really hold up anymore. Ronald Reagan spoke of rich people buying fancy cars, and this would give great jobs to Americans and would lift their standards of living. Well, a rich man will only buy so many cars, but what good does that do us now, with manufacturing being sent overseas with record pace. Trickle down doesn't help Americans when the funds trickle overseas.  

    We all need healthcare. We need wages. We need liberties. Reproductive liberties are still liberties. I have realized that perhaps making abortions illegal would be effective, but I would much rather leave people free to choose. We then put the effort into making a society where people simply choose not to do it.

    A society where we aren't all poor, and desperate and ignorant. A society where the American Dream is still reachable.

    Democrats love to raise taxes, but Republicans love to keep people so poor they never have to pay them.

    There are real issues that have real solutions, and the war is a manufactured issue that we can get out of. As for terrorists blowing us up, if we hadn't meddled over there, they wouldn't be over here.

    Muslims had no troubles with us when we minded our own business before the late 1940's.

    We have a mess to clean up, because we made the mess. But I think the people who made that mess need to be replaced. They are responsible for more American deaths than the 9/11 highjackers, and with around 30,000 wounded and crippled American Soldiers so far, we have to find a good way out, as soon as possible.

  •  11-08-2006, 6:41 PM 1048203 in reply to 1026969

    Re: What are the odds of a Democrat win ?

    The Pubs disappointed me as well.  Too much greed and scandal.  I still like Bush even thou he kept Rummy on waaay too long...well see what happens.  But, since the Demos don't have a plan one, I'm not expecting much...
  •  11-09-2006, 10:33 AM 1049715 in reply to 1026969

    Re: What are the odds of a Democrat win ?

    Odds of a Democrat win?  It now appears that it was pretty doggone good.  True, the Dems did NOTHING to actually create this win.  The Repubs just committed political suicide.  The Dems pick up the pieces.

    "...Democratic Party is a dying party" was said.  Oh how I wish you were right! Smile  But I'm just about sure that it's far from it.  Evil is ever present.

    Master C observed, "I was a Republican since I first registered at 18, but have found myself repeatedly dissappointed by that party on issue after issue. "

    Boy!  That sounds like me ( but make that 21 instead of 18).  The way it appears to me - The Republican Party is in the position of being the Good Guys only by default.  They take this position by being....

    (1) Not the Democratic Party

    (2) Big enough to actually win some elections.

    The Democrats have proven to be very capable in being the exponant for Evil in our age.  (Much like National Socialism was in the '30's & '40's)  But the Republicans are not nearly so good at being the exponant for Goodness and Reason.  Frankly, it's a mixed bag.

      We are given the choice twixt Horrible or Mediocrity.  Yes, it is possible that outstanding candidates will win the Republican Nomination - but that's not usually the case.  Yes, it's possible that great ideas will be advanced by the Republican Party, but there's some real "eye rollers" too.

    In such an imperfect world, we are compelled to hold the Republicans as our Heros. *sigh* Embarrassed Sad

     


    An ascendant man, living in a degenerate age, MUST, by definition, live in contradistinction to his times.
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